This week market will highly volatile due to F&O expiry
Last week Sensex rose 23 points or +0.13% to 16972 and Nifty rose 7 points or +0.14% to 5146 in the week ended 22-06-2012. Last week we saw market opened in gap up and nifty made new high of 5191 then RBI announced that there is not cut in any rates and market took this decision horribly and nifty new low of 5031 in just next 15 minutes. Then in other days nifty try to surge the gap but could not break 5191 during the week. So many panic news came during this week like. Moody downgrades, S&P downgrade India investment rating and biggest Rupee devaluation rupee closed above 57+. Which is the major reason for market to panic in coming days. On Monday Govt will announce new FM candidate. Market may react on this event also. So many uncertainties are in the market. Also keep in mind that next week is the last for F&O expiry. Due to all these we recommend to remain neutral in next week. We may see very high volatility in the market. Between 5197 to 5095 is not trading zone. pl remain neutral till 5232 if nifty close above this range then only active trader may buy nifty.
- KEEP SL IN SYSTEM NOT IN YOUR MIND.
- KEEP STRICT SL IN EVERY TRADE AND POSITIONS
- BEFORE YOU TRADE ON SYSTEM FIRST DECIDE THE SL AND THEN TRADE.
WEEKLY INDEX SUMMARY
The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions from the near-month June 2012 series to July 2012 series. The June 2012 derivatives contracts expire on Thursday, 28 June 2012
Hindalco Industries will announce its audited consolidated results for the year ended 31 March 2012 on Wednesday, 27 June 2012.
The progress of monsoon rains will be closely watched. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday, 22 June 2012, maintained its earlier forecast of normal monsoon this year. IMD said monsoon rains in 2012 would be 96% of the long-term average overall, down from its April forecast of 99%. A normal or average monsoon means rainfall between 96-104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 centimetres in total during the four-month season from June, according to IMD’s classification. The weather office also forecast average rains in July and August, key months for planting and maturing of crops. July rains this year are likely to be 98% of the long period average, while the rainfall in August is forecast to be 96% of the average
The monsoon rains are important for farm output and economic growth as about 55% of the south Asian nation’s arable land is rain-fed, and the farm sector accounts for about 15% of a nearly $2-trillion economy.
A key summit of the European Union (EU) is scheduled on 28 and 29 June 2012 to discuss the ongoing European debt crisis. At the upcoming EU summit, European officials will reportedly launch the long process of deeper integration within Europe, starting with a push for a banking union, with the aim of finalizing a broad plan by December 2012. European nations will take all necessary measures to safeguard the integrity and stability of the euro zone, improve the functioning of financial markets and break the feedback loop between sovereign debts and banks, according to the statement released at the end of the G20 summit in the Mexican resort of Los Cabos on 19 June 2012. (Data Source: Capitalmarket)
NIFTY WEEKLY CHART
WEEKLY NIFTY SUPPORT 5091-5030 AND RESISTANCE 5197
NIFTY FUT. (5151)
Buy above 5202 Target 5232-5281-5343
Sell below 5090 Target 5045-5001-4972
– Weekly Levels are Closing Basis, so follow on closing basis.
Rupesh Yatesh Dalal
Head Research Department
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