This week market may remain highly volatile and negative
Last week Sensex lost 252 points or -1.56% to 15965 and Nifty lost 79 points or -1.60% to 4841 in the week ended 01-06-2012. Last week we saw nifty took start good and made high of 5011 in starting of the week. But after Q4 GDP data has come at 9 years low and then market start reacting on panic side. Our India’s trade deficit is continously rising, which is the main key concern for the market sentiments. Govt also told that they cant control trade deficit, then who will control ? Now new worries are arriving from Europe, Greek and Spain problems are creating panic world wide. Looking to this all scenario our markets will also remain uncertain may creat more panic or remain highly volatile with on lower zone. Technically on chart nifty is on major downtrend only and may give breakout on negative side. If nifty close below 4766 then it may touch 4537 and more in coming days.
- KEEP SL IN SYSTEM NOT IN YOUR MIND.
- KEEP STRICT SL IN EVERY TRADE AND POSITIONS
- BEFORE YOU TRADE ON SYSTEM FIRST DECIDE THE SL AND THEN TRADE.
WEEKLY INDEX SUMMARY
News flow from euro-zone will continue to dictate near term trend on the domestic bourses as risk aversion arising from euro-zone debt worries rattled global markets in the month just gone by. The barometer index, BSE Sensex, lost 6.35% in May 2012 on euro-zone debt worries. Concerns about Greece’s possible exit from the European Union rattled global equity markets after the splintered results of a parliamentary election on 6 May 2012 left no party able to put together a government. That led the country to call another election on 17 June 2012.
Automobile and hotel stocks may slide after the government on Thursday, 31 May 2012, announced a series of austerity measures in the context of the current fiscal situation where there is a tremendous pressure on government’s resources. The finance ministry has banned purchase of new vehicles until further orders, including against condemned vehicles. The finance ministry also announced a ban on holding meeting and conferences at five-star hotels.
Shares of exporters will be in focus as Commerce Minister Anand Sharma unveils the foreign trade policy for 2012-13 on Tuesday, 5 June 2012. The economic crisis in the US and Europe is hitting India’s exports. Both these markets account for about one-third of country’s total shipments. The expansion in the country’s merchandise exports, which grew by as much as 82% in July 2011, came down to 3.2% in April 2012 due to the demand slowdown in western markets.
Infrastructure and cement stocks will be in focus after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Friday, 1 June 2012, approved the setting up of a mechanism that will track the progress of all major infrastructure projects to avoid delays in their completion. The government will periodically review the progress of projects under the Investment Tracking System to ensure that issues are quickly identified and resolved. All public-sector projects with an investment of Rs 1000 crore or more will be monitored by the National Manufacturing Competitive Council. The Department of Financial Services will monitor similar-sized projects of private companies, and the two bodies will report the progress of projects to the prime minister every quarter.
Investors will continue to watch the progress of the monsoon rains which could have impact on inflation and rural consumption. Around 60% of summer crops are rain-fed, and if monsoon rainfall is more or less on schedule and in sufficient amounts, crops that benefit from the rains account for around half of India’s total agricultural output. (Data Source: Capitalmarket)
NIFTY WEEKLY CHART
WEEKLY NIFTY SUPPORT 4766 AND RESISTANCE 4918
NIFTY FUT. (4824)
Buy above 4921 Target 4971-5010-5090
Sell below 4764 Target 4707-4646-4616-4539
– Weekly Levels are Closing Basis, so follow on closing basis.
Rupesh Yatesh Dalal
Head Research Department