MARKETCALLS

This week in market may rise with stock specific movement

Last week Sensex gained +234 points or +1.29% to 18401 and Nifty gained +78 points or +1.44% to 5530 in the week ended 20-8-2010. Last week we saw bulls entered in the market and took the full charge and nifty crossed 5500 level and nifty closed at 5523 level. This week we see continue upside rally with stock specific movements. Reliance may support the market. Nifty may touch upto 5580 and more. Watch attached chart below, Its weekly nifty chart their you can see prices are risisng but volumes are getting down. This is the risky point. So keep strict sl in your every trade is advisable.

Volatility could spike next week as traders rollover positions in derivatives segment from the August 2010 series to the September 2010 series ahead of the expiry of the near-month August 2010 contracts on Thursday, 26 August 2010.

The market hovers near 2-1/2-year high on the back of sustained buying by foreign funds. Foreign funds have made heavy purchases of Indian stocks over the past 2-1/2 months. Foreign funds have bought equities worth a net Rs 7028.83 crore so far this month, till 20 August 2010, absorbing selling of Rs 3149.57 crore from domestic funds, as per data from the stock exchanges. Foreign funds had bought shares worth a net Rs 8320.50 crore in July 2010, absorbing selling by domestic institutional investors. Domestic funds sold shares worth a net Rs 6323.13 crore in July 2010. Foreign funds had pumped in Rs 7713.97 crore in equities in June 2010, absorbing selling by domestic funds in that month. Domestic funds had dumped shares worth a net Rs 4777.05 crore in June 2010.

Data on infrastructure sector output for the month of July 2010 will be released by the government next week. Infrastructure sector production accounts for 26% of industrial output.

Investors will closely watch global economic data after a recent batch of disappointing US data reignited fears about the pace of the global econonic recovery.

Closer home, investors will closely watch the progress of the monsoon rains. The weather office late last week said rainfall was likely to remain below normal for another week, but could revive soon, particularly in the soybean-growing central region. Rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half (August to September) of the 2010 southwest monsoon season is likely to be normal, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Quantitatively, rainfall for the country as a whole during the period August-September 2010 is likely to be 107% of long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus/minus 7%, according to the weather office.

The south west monsoon is important for India as about 60% of the country’s farmlands are rain-fed and more than half of the workforce is employed in the agriculture sector. The weather office expects this year’s monsoon rains to be at 102% of the long-period average. If the southwest monsoon for the June-September monsoon season turns out good and if it is well distributed, it will help raise farm output, boost rural incomes and lower food inflation.   (Data Source: Capitalmarket)

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

WEEKLY NIFTY SUPPORT 5470 AND RESISTANCE 5539

NIFTY FUT. (5523)
Buy above 5540 Target ????
Sell below 5469 Target ????

For SL and Targets Levels – SUBSCRIBE Nifty Calls AT : www.marketcalls.net
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-Always Remember, put SL in your every trade.

- Weekly Levels are Closing Basis, so follow on clsoing time.
-How to follow our calls on Click Here
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Rupesh Yatesh  Dalal
Head Research Team

www.marketcalls.net

This week in market may rise with stock specific movement

Last week Sensex lost -262 points or -1.45% to 17868 and Nifty lost -82 points or -1.50% to 5367 in the week ended 30-7-2010. Last week after good result of Reliance and Good announcement of RBI, but we saw profit booking on higher level. Due to result season market is trading very choppy way. Still we hope on Reliance, If RIL moves then nifty will go above 5500 very fast. Till 5230 we are on bull side. No need to panic in market. Nifty resistance at 5455 and 5476. If nifty close above then hold long positoins.

Stock-specific activity is likely to continue in the near term based on first quarter result announcement or expectations about first quarter results of individual firms. Many front line companies such as State Bank of India, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors and Tata Steel, are still to announce their results.

Private sector bank ICICI Bank reports first quarter results on Saturday, 31 July 2010. On Monday, 2 August 2010, gas transmission and distribution firm GAIL India unveils first quarter results, to be followed by copper and aluminium major Hindalco Industries on Tuesday, 3 August 2010 and Infrastructure Development Finance (IDFC) on Wednesday, 4 August 2010. Power Grid Corporation reports first quarter results on Friday, 6 August 2010.

The results announced so far have been a mixed bag. The combined net profit of a total of 1,085 companies declined 12.6% to Rs 47280 crore on 23.1% increase in sales to Rs 609368 crore in Q1 June 2010 over Q1 June 2009.

Auto and cement stocks will be in focus early next week as companies announce sales volumes for July 2010. On the macro front, HSBC’s manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for July 2010 will be out on Monday, 2 August 2010. The index had declined to 57.3 in June 2010, from 59 in May 2010.

During the week ahead, HSBC will also unveil the services sector PMI for July 2010. The index, which shows business activity in the services sector had reached a two-year high of 64 last month.

There are concerns of sharper monetary action going ahead following hawkish comments by a central bank official on Thursday, 29 July 2010. Current interest rates would not tame inflation and aggressive action is needed, an RBI official said on Thursday. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at its Q1 monetary policy on Tuesday, 27 July 2010, raised its key short term interest rates for the fourth time this year to curb surging inflation. The central bank also raised its economic growth and inflation forecasts.

On the flip side, the revival of monsoon rains in the crucial sowing month of July 2010 augurs well for the Indian economy which is driven by strong domestic demand. The annual monsoon rains were 38% above normal in the week to 28 July 2010, bouncing back from a 17-percent deficit in the previous week. Heavy, well-distributed showers in the past week helped total rainfall rise to normal during July, the most important month for planting rice, corn, soybean and cane.

The Southwest monsoon was active over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Vidarbha, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala during past 24 hours, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its daily update on Thursday, 29 July 2010. The weather office expects fairly widespread rainfall over west coast, northwest, east and northeast India in the near term.

The south west monsoon is important for India as about 60% of the country’s farmlands are rain-fed and more than half of the workforce is employed in the agriculture sector. The weather office expects this year’s monsoon rains to be at 102% of the long-period average. Good monsoon rains would help raise farm output, boost rural incomes and lower food inflation.

Meanwhile, the government is trying to persuade truckers not to go on strike from 6 August 2010 to press their demand for lower toll tax. Truckers lobby group, the All India Motor Transport Congress (AIMTC), has called for lower toll tax failing which it plans to take nearly 62 lakh trucks off roads from 6 August 2010, and halt movement of goods across the country.

Coming back to stocks, ITC turns ex-bonus from Tuesday, 3 August 2010. The cigarette major has announced a liberal 1:1 bonus.

Foreign funds continue to mop up Indian stocks. Foreign funds have bought shares worth a net Rs 8109.64 crore this month (till 29 July 2010), absorbing selling by domestic institutional investors. Domestic funds have sold shares worth a net Rs 6193.15 crore this month (till 29 July 2010), as per data from the stock exchanges.

Foreign funds had pumped in Rs 7713.97 crore in equities in June 2010, absorbing selling by domestic funds in that month. Domestic funds had dumped shares worth a net Rs 4777.05 crore in June 2010.

Asia ex-Japan equity funds absorbed more than $1 billion in the week ended 28 July 2010, their biggest inflow in 14 weeks, according to data from global fund tracking firm EPFR Global. Indian equity funds posted an eighth consecutive week of inflows and China stock funds recorded the biggest weekly intake since mid-April, EPFR said.  (Data Source: Capitalmarket)

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

WEEKLY NIFTY SUPPORT 5325 AND RESISTANCE 5455-76

NIFTY FUT. (5376)
Buy above 5455 Target ????
Sell below 5355 Target ????

For SL and Targets Levels – SUBSCRIBE Nifty Calls AT : www.marketcalls.net
and enjoy many more things….  (See Subscribe menu to subscription details)

-Always Remember, put SL in your every trade.

- Weekly Levels are Closing Basis, so follow on clsoing time.
-How to follow our calls on Click Here
-Read Disclaimer at Click Here

Rupesh Yatesh  Dalal
Head Research Team

www.marketcalls.net

This week market may continue its bull run with high volatility

Last week Sensex gained 103 points or +0.591% to 17694 and Nifty gained +42 points or +0.79% to 5304 in the week ended 23-4-2010. Last week nifty sustained 5200 level and closed at 5305. Technically market trend is bullish on chart.  This is the last week for F&O expiry, so market may show stock specific movements with high volatility. If nifty close below 5151 then exit from all long positions is advisable.

Forecast of a normal monsoon this year may help stocks extend gains next week. But, volatility may rise as traders roll over positions in the derivatives segment from the April 2010 series to the May 2010 series ahead of the expiry of the near-month April 2010 contracts on Thursday, 29 April 2010.

Shares of India’s biggest private sector firm by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) will on Monday, 26 April 2010, react to the fourth quarter March 2010 results which the firm announced after trading hours on Friday, 23 April 2010. Net profit rose 29.9% to Rs 4710 crore on 120.7% growth in net turnover to Rs 57570 crore in Q4 March 2010 over Q4 March 2009.

ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank will also be in focus early in the week after the two private sector banks unveil fourth quarter and year ended March 2010 results on Saturday, 24 April 2010. Among major results due next week include Maruti Suzuki and Sterlite Industries on Monday, 26 April 2010, Infrastructure Development Finance Company (IDFC) on Tuesday, 27 April 2010, Bharti Airtel on Wednesday 28 April 2010, Siemens on Thursday 29 April 2010 and ABB and Reliance Capital on Friday 30 April 2010.

The results announced so far show that the combined net profit of a total of 161 companies rose 32.7% to Rs 12534 crore on 36.7% rise in sales to Rs 98684 crore in the quarter ended March 2010 over the quarter ended March 2009.

The initial public offer of Jaypee Infratech, which has undertaken the Yamuna Expressway project, opens for bidding on 29 April 2010. The company has fixed the price band of the initial public offer (IPO) at Rs 102-117 per share.

Meanwhile, the Indian Meteorological department (IMD) expects normal rainfall in the June-September monsoon season this year. Rainfall is likely to be 98% of the long-term average, it said. Good monsoon rains would help raise farm output, boost rural incomes and lower food inflation. The south west monsoon is important for India as about 60% of the country’s farmlands are rain-fed and more than half of the workforce is employed in the agriculture sector. The quantum of rainfall in the crucial sowing month of July and distribution of rainfall during the monsoon season holds key.

On the global front, the US Federal Reserve is expected to surprise no one on Wednesday, 28 April 2010, by holding interest rates near zero and repeating its vow of an extended period of very low rates at the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting.

The Greek government surrendered to the credit markets on Friday, 23 April 2010, formally requesting the activation of a joint European Union-International Monetary Fund rescue plan after soaring borrowing costs were seen making it virtually impossible for the debt-strapped nation to meet its funding needs on the open market. (Data Source: Capitalmarket)

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

WEEKLY NIFTY SUPPORT 5200 AND RESISTANCE 5342-5398

NIFTY FUT. (5305)
Buy above 5342 Target ????
Sell below 5160 Target ????

For SL and Targets Levels – SUBSCRIBE Nifty Calls AT : www.marketcalls.net
and enjoy many more things….  (See Subscribe menu to subscription details)

-Always Remember, put SL in your every trade.

-How to follow our calls on Click Here
-Read Disclaimer at Click Here

Rupesh Yatesh  Dalal
Head Research Team

www.marketcalls.net